India: A house on stilts

Disintegration of India is not possible. India is like a house on stilts. I shall try to prove that this social, political, and economic entity called the Republic of India would be around for a long time. As I type this document, in Dec 2008, India is more politically decentralized today than ever before. The era of big national political parties in India is over. This is the era of coalition governments: that is, one coalition government will replace another coalition governent. There is no political party in India that can form the New Delhi government on its own. The present government is a coalition of political parties, which is the strength of India. The opposition is also a coalition of political parties. The different states in India compete with each other which in turn spurs growth. For example, Bangalore city (it changed its spelling to Bengaluru recently) and Hyderabad city are rivals economically. Bengaluru is located in Karnataka state and Hyderabad is located in Andra Pradesh state. Both these cities compete for investments.

Another example is West Bengal state and Gujarat state. They also compete with each other. Tata Motors wanted to build the cheapest car in the world, the Nano, in West Bengal. But some hardhead politicians in West Bengal gave Tata Motors a hard time. (Too bad for West Bengal.) Tata Motors simply moved its investments to Gujarat state. (Good luck to Gujarat state.) There you go. Now you know what I mean. There is rivalry among the states, which makes the job of the central government that much easier. The central government/New Delhi no longer has to look for investment for the various states because that responsibility has been pushed to the individual states. Each state has to take care of itself and compete with each other for growth and investments.

Likewise, all the various states compete with each other, which is the strength of India. That is, the weaker the New Delhi government, the more the individual states compete with each other, which is the strength of India. There are more local and regional political parties today than ever before. This is the strength of India. The era of big national political parties in India is over.

India is like a house on stilts. If in 1947 (independence year) India started out as a house with 4 stilts, then today in 2008/2009 she is a house with 10, 12, or 15 stilts to hold her stable. Each stilt is a political party. Each stilt is a niche. Through trial and error Indians continue to move from one niche to another until they find the right niche. Through trial and error Indians continue to move from one political party to another until they find the right political party. This phenomenon of political decentralization has ushered in the era of coalition goverments in India.

Yes, India is like a house on stilts. They say that in a market economy you should find your own niche. Finding your own niche is easier said than done. Do find your own niche or does your niche find you, or do you end up in your niche after having tried all the other niches. It looks like you end up in your own niche after having tried all the other niches. This is what the Indian people have been doing after becoming independent in 1947. It took a few decades, but after having tried all the other political parties, each group ends up in it's own niche. Each niche is like a stilt to hold up the India house. So, if the India house started with, may be, 4 stilts in 1947, today in 2008/2009 she has 10 or 15 stilts to hold her up; and the India house continues to sprout new stilts every once in a while. Some sprouts disappear and others appear to continue to hold up the India house. Isn't that amazing. Yes, India is like a house on stilts.

A decentralized India is an investor's dream. A smart investor would play one state in India against another in order to get the best deal for himself. A smart investor would play one city in India against another in order to get the best deal for himself. Yes, coalition politics has ensured that India is a investor's dream. All the investor has to do is to make the various states inside India to compete for his investments; and this will ensure the investor the best deal.

Furthermore, voters in India have come of age. India became independent in 1947. Through trial and error the voters in India have become smarter. Politics has become increasingly local. That is, local issues like electricity supply, water supply, roads, schools is what voters care for. Even after the 26 Nov 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, the voters were not interested in the Mumbai attacks. For example, about a week after 26 Nov 2008, local elections were held in some parts of India and again voters were only interested in local issues like electricity supply, water supply, roads, schools, etc. It is becoming increasingly hard to get the attention of voters in any other things nowadays besides electricity supply, water supply, roads, schools, etc. That is, the voters would even vote for Micky Mouse if he can give in return electricity supply, water supply, roads, schools, etc. That' s all. Yes, Indian voters have come of age.

The growth in India is mostly in the cities. So, urbanization continues. There is a construction boom in some cities. Do you know that even urbanization can thwart secessionist movements? How? A youth has two choices. He could, on the one hand, go into the mountains and forests and join the secssionist movement just to grab a rifle or on the other hand move to the growth cities where life is fast. Do you know about the life of armed guerillas deep in the jungles and mountains: they are very lucky if they can eat something similar to monitor lizard once in a way. I would imagine that the youth would choose the fast life of the city, not the hard life in the forests and mountains. Nobody wants a hard life. There you go. Even urbanization thwarts seccessionist movements.

The proverbial thorn in the flesh in India is probably IOK or Indian Occupied Kashmir. There is India on the one hand and IOK (Indian Occupied Kashmir) on the other hand. India is Hindu majority, while IOK is Muslim majority. What I have stated earlier about voters coming of age applies to India, not IOK. That is, the voters in India have come of age, while the voters in IOK have yet to come of age. Hopefully, IOK voters too would come of age like the Indian voters. Hopefully, IOK voters would attach greater value to local issues like water supply, electricity supply, roads, schools, etc. If the Indian voters have come of age, then why don't the IOK voters also come of age too? If only the IOK voters come of age, then they could have a better life. If only the IOK voters come of age, then peace and prosperity would improve. We will wait and see. Stay tuned.

If the Indian voter has indeed come of age, then what does this tell you? India is an unprecedented human experiment. Without giving up one person one vote, Indians have managed more than one billion people and delivered economic growth at least in some cities. It's unprecedented. I call it the Indian way: that is, all politics is local. And hopefully, the Indian way will catch on in other parts of South Asia and South West Asia. If the Indian way (all politics is local) catches on in South & South West Asia, then the Indian way would have changed the world for the better.

If indeed the Indian voter has come of age, then, fortunately or unfortunately, this social, political, and economic entity called the Republic of India, the house on stilts, would be around for a long time. Please do get used to it.